UFC Fight Night 261 – Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira

The event is scheduled for October 11, 2025, at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, as part of UFC Fight Night 261, also known as UFC on ESPN+ 119. The fight between Luan Lacerda and Saimon Oliveira is set for the preliminary card, marking another major UFC return to Rio de Janeiro. This card has attracted significant attention from Brazilian fans, as it features several homegrown fighters looking to revive their careers and make statements in front of their local supporters. The bout is expected to open the night’s action, setting the tone for the rest of the event.

Neither Luan Lacerda nor Saimon Oliveira has reported any injuries going into this fight. However, Saimon Oliveira caused major headlines at the official weigh-ins when he missed the bantamweight limit by a staggering eight pounds, weighing in at 144 pounds. As a result, the contest will proceed as a catchweight fight, and Oliveira will forfeit half of his fight purse to Lacerda. The weight miss has become the main storyline before the fight, overshadowing much of the normal pre-fight discussion. No substitutes or last-minute changes have been announced, and both fighters are cleared to compete as scheduled.

From a tactical standpoint, both corners are expected to employ contrasting game plans. Luan Lacerda’s coaching team will likely focus on a stand-up strategy, using sharp striking, distance control, and leg kicks to keep Oliveira away from clinch positions or grappling exchanges. Lacerda’s takedown defense has been a key strength, and his camp will want to test Oliveira’s cardio, especially given the extra weight cut. On the other hand, Oliveira’s team is expected to rely heavily on forward pressure, clinch control, and takedowns, aiming to drag Luan Lacerda into deep grappling situations where Oliveira’s submission skills can shine. The extra size advantage from the weight miss could allow Oliveira to bully in close range, but he’ll need to manage his energy carefully.

Press coverage leading up to UFC Fight Night 261 has centered heavily on Oliveira’s failed weigh-in. Many reporters have questioned his professionalism and preparation, suggesting that the incident may affect his performance and confidence inside the cage. At the same time, analysts have noted that both fighters are fighting for their UFC futures: Lacerda enters the bout with an 0-2 record in the promotion, while Oliveira is 0-3. Oddsmakers have largely favored Lacerda to win, citing his sharper striking and more consistent conditioning. The crowd in Rio is expected to be loud and supportive, potentially giving both men an emotional lift, though it may favor Lacerda slightly as he is perceived as the more disciplined athlete going into fight night.

Studio analysts and pre-fight panels have echoed similar sentiments. Most experts predict a Lacerda victory, pointing to his superior technical striking, defensive wrestling, and composure under pressure. The analysts have also emphasized that Oliveira’s weight miss could have both physical and psychological consequences, reducing his stamina and increasing the pressure to deliver despite the controversy. Some commentators believe Oliveira still poses a serious submission threat if he can get the fight to the ground, but the general consensus favors Lacerda to control the tempo and win by decision or late stoppage. The pre-fight analysis suggests this bout will reveal whether either man can overcome recent struggles and secure a much-needed win in front of an energetic Brazilian audience.